A new statewide Tennessee poll commissioned by The Progress Fund shows a more competitive governor’s race than many might expect. Marsha Blackburn holds a single-digit lead, 45% to 36% over Jerri Green, while independent David Hatley receives 10%, Lauren Pinkston receives 2%, and 7% remain undecided. After voters hear more about the candidates, Green holds a narrow 42% to 41% edge over Blackburn on which candidate voters trust more to address the issues most important to them.

Hatley’s support is also notable, with the crosstabs showing him attracting support from both independent and Republican identifying voters, creating an additional dynamic within Blackburn’s coalition.

The TargetSmart survey was conducted September 9–12 among 600 Tennessee likely voters using live telephone and online interviews. It has an overall margin of error of ±4 percentage points. The sample was weighted to reflect Tennessee’s likely-voter population across demographic, geographic, partisan, turnout, and 2024 presidential vote measures.